1 in 4
What if flying in an airplane was basically free, but 1 in every 4 flights crashed and everybody onboard died.
Would you board that flight?
In fact, this is the gamble with the ongoing existence of humanity that leading AI CEOs have publicly advised we are taking by continuing to develop AI as we do today.
There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly.
— Dario Amodei (CEO, Anthropic, maker of Claude)
- Elon Musk — variously, up to 20% chance
- Other researchers — upwards of 100% ??
It's important to note that the people making these conjectures are not only the most knowledgable people on the topic, but are also sounding the alarm against their own financial interests. These are the people that stand to make the most money if everyone just continues to blindly support the ongoing development of AI.
Strikingly, this concern is being openly voiced by the very people who have the strongest incentives to project confidence rather than alarm: the founders of the largest AI laboratories.
— Will Marshall for The Economist
Wait, so what now ?
In the wake of AI, I'm trying to figure out what I can do to contribute to the safe landing of humanity. If you're also interested, please follow along on my AI page at cblack.com/ai. ☵☲